18ish months have passed since the election of the federal Liberal party in Canada. My one or two readers might recall blog-0667, where I asked for specific predictions. It's time to score. Here are those old predictions:

(Frank) $8B annual federal deficits (sorry, kids!)

Wew lads, the actual 2017 budget deficit is $28.5 billion. It's far worse than I thought.

(Frank) +10% in my taxes

My federal income taxes have gone up 8% while my pay went up 0.8%. Prediction failed, strictly speaking. It is still obscene (both in relative and absolute terms), and doesn't count provincial/municipal/other taxes, which also increased.

(Lukas) A reduction in the annual TFSA contribution room back to the $5500 (indexed) amount


(Lukas) Re-enactment (in some form) of the long gun registry

Nope, but there are stirrings, and the RCMP continues its gun reclassification shenanigans.

(Lukas) Legalization and taxation of marijuana (ok, that’s my pie in the sky/hell freezes over, prediction)

Correct, this is under way.

(Jay) I'm predicting less money in my pocket (from higher taxes) ..... but I hope I'm wrong.

Correct, of course.

(David) Amending bill c51 for starters

Nope. The bill the liberals voted for, then campaigned against, is still untouched.

(David) Independent foreign policies that don't blindly follow US.

Probably correct. Trudeau seems to be enjoying his role as an anti-Trump. (This is in no way an endorsal of the "independent foreign policy", only a agreement that it is independent!)

(David) A more compassionate government over all and a less fear based government for starters!

I never learned how to measure this, so no score.

The grand totals on prediction success indicate congratulations are in order for Jay. I think this is a healthy exercise, and any honest and thoughtful elector should consider doing the same.